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indicator 03-11-2014

Daily Briefing- European markets up after German Data, OPEC decision pending

CurrenciesEUR/USD:  The pair is trading above its upward trend line on 30 minute time frame and a break of this will confirm that the trend is no longer in place. The support is near the 1.2398 and the resistance is near the 1.2550. USD/JPY:  The dollar yen pair is trading below the downward trend line on a 30 minute time frame and as long as its trading below this trend line, the bias … [Read More...]

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OPEC’s decision problem for Draghi

OPEC has delivered their decision yesterday with no surprise for the market, but given how the oil prices have fallen after their decision was certainly a surprise for investors. The reason is that every one was almost expecting that the OPEC members will not cut their production and this was priced in the market, as we marched towards the decision. The question which many are asking is that why … [Read More...]

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EUR/GBP- Looking bearish, will you trade

The EUR/GBP pair is looking very bearish on a 30 minute time frame as the price is trading below its downward trend line. Moreover, it has also formed a symmetrical triangle on a 60 minute time frame and these triangles usually break in the direction of the trend which I this case is towards the downside. Another bearish sign is coming from the 100 day moving average (shown in yellow) which is … [Read More...]

Today’s Technical Analysis

Screen Shot 2014-11-28 at 09.44.41

EUR/GBP- Looking bearish, will you trade

The EUR/GBP pair is looking very bearish on a 30 minute time frame as the price is trading below its downward trend line. Moreover, it has also formed a symmetrical triangle on a 60 minute time frame and these triangles usually break in the direction … [Read More...]

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AUD/US- Upward momentum still strong

The AUD/USD pair is trading in an upward trend on a 30 minute time frame. The pair has broken its downward trend line which is coming from a bigger time frame. This confirms that the bills are in control of the price. Moreover, the price is also … [Read More...]

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GBP/USD- trading in an upward channel

The GBP/USD pair is trading above the upward trend line on a 30 minute time frame and this confirms the upward trend is intact. The price is also trading in a range base within a channel which is called the upward channel. Most traders use the base … [Read More...]

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Gold- upward trend could continue

Gold is trading in an upward trend on a 30 minute time frame. However, it is important to keep in mind that the trend on the daily time frame is towards the downside and that is the dominant trend. Therefore, when taking a trade on a smaller time … [Read More...]

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EUR/USD- Bounced from its support zone and momentum still strong

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from its support zone (mentioned below) and has confirmed this zone once again this morning. This confirms that there is enough buying pressure at this zone. However, what is important to note is that the downward trend … [Read More...]

Weekly Forecast

retail sales 12-05

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 24th – 30th of Nov.

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Tuesday which is the Prelim GDP q/q data. On Wednesday, investors will look at the core durable goods orders and the unemployment claims data.  Also on Wednesday, the main focus of the week with the New Homes Sales data.

 

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.      Prelim GDP q/q

Data:

Previous Figure: 3.5%

Forecast Figure: 3.3%

Time: 14:30 GMT

 

2.       CB Consumer Confidence

Data:

Previous Figure: 94.5

Forecast Figure: 95.9

Time: 16:00 GMT

Screen Shot 2014-11-24 at 11.54.08

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could have inflated due to the continuous fall in the oil prices which has increased the buying power for the consumers.

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: -0.1%%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 14:30 GMT

 

2.     Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 291K

Forecast Figure: 287K

Time: 14:30 GMT

 

3.    New Home Sales

Data:

Previous Figure: 467K

Forecast Figure: 471K

Time: 16:00 GMT

Screen Shot 2014-11-24 at 12.01.20

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

Sentiment: 

We do not think that the New Home Sales improvement will show much of an improvement this week because the inventory data is still depressed.

 

core CPI  15-04-2014

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 14th – 21th of April.

 

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Monday which is the core retail sales data. On Tuesday, investors will look at the core CPI and Empire State Manufacturing. Wednesday is the main focus day of the week with Building permits and housing starts. Thursday, will focus on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will take traders attention.

 

Monday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.3%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.1%

Forecast Figure: 0.1%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because the underlying factors rents are not increasing. The chart shows the comparison between the PPI, Core PPi, CPI and core CPI index.

core CPI  15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

2.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 5.6

Forecast Figure: 8.2

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

The chart shows the comparison between the empire state index and the Philadelphia index.

empire state 15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:1.01M

Forecast Figure:  1.00M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Housing Starts

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.91M

Forecast Figure:  0.97 M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

An increase in the speculation such as a hike in the interest rate and diminishing hunger for new homes could have an impact on the final number.  The belwo chart shows the comparison between the permits and Starts.

housing starts

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 300K

Forecast Figure:  316K

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 9.0

Forecast Figure: 9.6

Time: 15:00 GMT

 

The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. Responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.
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