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Indicator 23-07-2014

Daily Briefing- European markets higher ahead of Carney’s speech

Daily BriefingCurrenciesEUR/USD: The pair has broken its support zone of 1.3497-1.3432 on a 60 minute time frame and this shows a weakness for the price.  The next support is at 1.3419 and the next resistance is at 1.3695. USD/JPY: The pair has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on a 60 minute time frame.  The next support is at 100.99 and resistance at 102.84 GBP/USD: The pair … [Read More...]

IMG_0825

US futures trading lower ahead of BOE’s minutes

Investors have once a gained pushed the US markets in a record territory yesterday when the S&P 500 made another all time high. Certainly, geopolitical tensions are not on their mind and they believed that European leaders will pay more attention to their own interest first before they agree on anything which can cut into their own flesh.The growth is extremely fragile and weak in Europe … [Read More...]

GBPUSD 23-07-2014

GBP/USD-Upward pressure building up

The GBP/USD is trading within the inverted wedge pattern on a 60 minute time frame. The price is also trading in a downward wedge pattern and a break of this wedge pattern will confirm that we could be touching the resistance level which is mentioned below and crossing the 1.72 mark. The volatility for the pair is low as it is trading within the Bollinger band and close enough to its 20 day moving … [Read More...]

Today’s Technical Analysis

GBPUSD 23-07-2014

GBP/USD-Upward pressure building up

The GBP/USD is trading within the inverted wedge pattern on a 60 minute time frame. The price is also trading in a downward wedge pattern and a break of this wedge pattern will confirm that we could be touching the resistance level which is mentioned … [Read More...]

EURUSD 22-07-2014

EUR/USD- Bounced from Support zone as predicted, What now?

The EUR/USD has bounced back up from its support zone (minor support zone mentioned below) on a 240 minute time frame as predicted. The support zone was given in our analysis on the 14th of July. The price has completed its symmetrical triangle … [Read More...]

EURGBP 15-07-2014

EUR/GBP- Selling pressure could be fading soon

The EUR/GBP pair is trading in a downward wedge pattern on a daily time frame. The price need to break above the upper line of this wedge to confirm that the bears are losing their grip. The pair is also trading below the 50day (shown in yellow) and … [Read More...]

Deutsche bank 17-07-2014

Deutsche Bank – Bounced from its support Zone, will you trade

Deutsche bank has bounced from its support zone (mentioned below) on a daily time frame. The price is challenging its downward trend line and a break of this line will confirm that the bears are losing their control of the price. The price is also … [Read More...]

GBPUSD 16-07-2014

GBP/USD- Fell from resistance as we Predicted, what now?

The GBP/USD pair fell from our Predicted level of resistance on a 60 minute time frame. The resistance level was given in our analysis on the 15th of June. The price is trading in an inverted wedge pattern which shows that the spectrum of the price … [Read More...]

Weekly Forecast

retail sales 12-05

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 12th – 18th of May.

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Tuesday which is the core retail sales data. On Wednesday, investors will look at the PPI.  Thursday, is the main focus of the week with core CPI data, unemployment claims, Empire state manufacturing index and Philly Fed Manufacturing index. Friday, will concentrate on building permits and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which will take traders attention.

 

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.7%

Forecast Figure: 0.6%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because of the slowdown in the auto sales during the month of April.

retail sales 12-05

Source: Bloomberg

 

2.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 1.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       PPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

We do know that the energy prices and food prices have started creeping up and this should have an impact on the PPI reading soon, but given the wholesales gasoline futures are pointing for a downward move so perhaps the longer term view may not have much impact.

PPI 12-05-

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure:  0.2%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure:  319K

Forecast Figure:  321K

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

3.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.3

Forecast Figure:  7.2

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

The regional data released so far is painting a mix picture for the final number and the forward looking new orders index is posting a weak picture. The chart below shows the comparison between the empire and Philadelphia index.

empire state 12-05

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

4.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  16.6

Forecast Figure:  13.9

Time: 14:00 GMT

 

Friday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.00M

Forecast Figure:  1.01M

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Data:

Previous Figure: 84.1

Forecast Figure: 84.7

Time: 13:55 GMT

 

core CPI  15-04-2014

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 14th – 21th of April.

 

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Monday which is the core retail sales data. On Tuesday, investors will look at the core CPI and Empire State Manufacturing. Wednesday is the main focus day of the week with Building permits and housing starts. Thursday, will focus on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will take traders attention.

 

Monday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.3%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.1%

Forecast Figure: 0.1%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because the underlying factors rents are not increasing. The chart shows the comparison between the PPI, Core PPi, CPI and core CPI index.

core CPI  15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

2.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 5.6

Forecast Figure: 8.2

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

The chart shows the comparison between the empire state index and the Philadelphia index.

empire state 15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:1.01M

Forecast Figure:  1.00M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Housing Starts

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.91M

Forecast Figure:  0.97 M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

An increase in the speculation such as a hike in the interest rate and diminishing hunger for new homes could have an impact on the final number.  The belwo chart shows the comparison between the permits and Starts.

housing starts

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 300K

Forecast Figure:  316K

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 9.0

Forecast Figure: 9.6

Time: 15:00 GMT

 

The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. Responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.
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