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trend 10-09-2014

48 hours left of Scottish referendum

Daily BriefingCurrenciesEUR/USD: The pair is trading below its downward trend line on a 60 minute time frame. The next support is at 1.2811 and the next resistance is at 1.3113.USD/JPY: The pair is trading above its upward trend line on a 60 minute time frame. The next support is at 103.89 and resistance at 107.12GBP/USD: The pair is trading in its support zone on a 60 … [Read More...]

iStock_000017536838Small

NO vote it is; “Come on Scotland, get on with it”

No independence it is, and GBP traders are enjoying the big relief rally this morning and shorters have no choice but to cover their position in the light of all this. So, for now, we are out of woods, atleast for few years. It is London's responsibility to deliver on its promises fast, and as agreed, because any kind of backing out could bring us back here once again. Most of the industry leaders … [Read More...]

Screen Shot 2014-09-16 at 11.35.22

Brent in a Support zone, will you trade?

 Brent crude is trading below the downward trend line on a duly time frame. The brent price is trading below the 50 day (shown in red) and 100 day (shown in yellow) moving averages which means that the bias is towards the downside.  The price has also pierced the Bollinger Band, piercing of the Bollinger band does have significant importance when this takes place at an important level of … [Read More...]

Today’s Technical Analysis

Screen Shot 2014-09-16 at 11.35.22

Brent in a Support zone, will you trade?

 Brent crude is trading below the downward trend line on a duly time frame. The brent price is trading below the 50 day (shown in red) and 100 day (shown in yellow) moving averages which means that the bias is towards the downside.  The … [Read More...]

GBPUSD 12-09-2014

GBP/USD-Price bounced from OUR Identified zone, what now?

The GBP/USD has bounced from OUR identified support zone on a 60 minute time frame. The support zone was given in our analysis on the 8th of September. The risk mentioned was 7 pips and the price has moved 10 pips in direction which is more than 1:1 … [Read More...]

USDJPY 11-09-2014

USD/JPY- Upward pressure is slowing

The USD/JPY pair is trading above its upward trend line on a 60 minute time frame.  The price is also trading above its the 100 day (shown in red) and 50 day (shown in green) which clearly represents that the bulls are in control of the … [Read More...]

AUDUSD 10-09-2014

AUD/USD- Downward pressure continues

The AUD/USD pair is trading below the downward trend line on a 60 minute time frame. The price has pierced the Bollinger band and piercing of the Bollinger band does have a significant importance when this takes place at an important level of support … [Read More...]

Capture

Apple – Ascending triangle formed ahead of big event

Apple has formed an ascending triangle pattern on a 30 minute time frame.  The pattern is a bearish pattern and if the price breaks towards the downside, we could see the price near the $96. However, if we get a false break out and the pattern does … [Read More...]

Weekly Forecast

retail sales 12-05

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 12th – 18th of May.

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Tuesday which is the core retail sales data. On Wednesday, investors will look at the PPI.  Thursday, is the main focus of the week with core CPI data, unemployment claims, Empire state manufacturing index and Philly Fed Manufacturing index. Friday, will concentrate on building permits and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which will take traders attention.

 

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.7%

Forecast Figure: 0.6%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because of the slowdown in the auto sales during the month of April.

retail sales 12-05

Source: Bloomberg

 

2.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 1.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       PPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

We do know that the energy prices and food prices have started creeping up and this should have an impact on the PPI reading soon, but given the wholesales gasoline futures are pointing for a downward move so perhaps the longer term view may not have much impact.

PPI 12-05-

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure:  0.2%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure:  319K

Forecast Figure:  321K

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

3.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.3

Forecast Figure:  7.2

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

The regional data released so far is painting a mix picture for the final number and the forward looking new orders index is posting a weak picture. The chart below shows the comparison between the empire and Philadelphia index.

empire state 12-05

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

4.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  16.6

Forecast Figure:  13.9

Time: 14:00 GMT

 

Friday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.00M

Forecast Figure:  1.01M

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Data:

Previous Figure: 84.1

Forecast Figure: 84.7

Time: 13:55 GMT

 

core CPI  15-04-2014

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 14th – 21th of April.

 

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Monday which is the core retail sales data. On Tuesday, investors will look at the core CPI and Empire State Manufacturing. Wednesday is the main focus day of the week with Building permits and housing starts. Thursday, will focus on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will take traders attention.

 

Monday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.3%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.1%

Forecast Figure: 0.1%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because the underlying factors rents are not increasing. The chart shows the comparison between the PPI, Core PPi, CPI and core CPI index.

core CPI  15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

2.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 5.6

Forecast Figure: 8.2

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

The chart shows the comparison between the empire state index and the Philadelphia index.

empire state 15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:1.01M

Forecast Figure:  1.00M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Housing Starts

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.91M

Forecast Figure:  0.97 M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

An increase in the speculation such as a hike in the interest rate and diminishing hunger for new homes could have an impact on the final number.  The belwo chart shows the comparison between the permits and Starts.

housing starts

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 300K

Forecast Figure:  316K

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 9.0

Forecast Figure: 9.6

Time: 15:00 GMT

 

The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. Responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.
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