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Daily Briefing- US futures trading lower ahead of FOMC

Daily BriefingCurrenciesEUR/USD: The pair has broken its minor resistance (1.3320-1.3292)  on a 60 minute time frame. The next support is at 1.3250 and the next resistance is at 1.3521. USD/JPY: The pair is trading in a resistance zone of 103.25-103.41 on a 60 minute time frame.  The next support is at 101.79 and resistance at 103.93 GBP/USD: The pair has bounced strongly back up … [Read More...]

nestegg_11_15_08_pc_pro

Calm before the storm; BOE & Fed minutes in focus

US futures and European markets are trading slightly lower this morning and the volume may remain subdued as we approach towards the two biggest events of the week. It is what we call a calm before the storm and traders perhaps do not want to place any bets before they see the results of those events. Having said that, one of these events can very well be a lackluster which is the Bank of the … [Read More...]

USDJPY 20-08-2014

USDJPY could face a selling pressure soon

The USD/JPY pair has fallen from its resistance zone on a 60 minute time frame.  However, the price is still trading near the resistance zone and it could have another attempt on the resistance zone. What will be important o see in that instance will be if we have any kind of reversal pattern forming in the shorter time time frame such as the 30 minute or 15 minute time frame. If we do have a … [Read More...]

Today’s Technical Analysis

USDJPY 20-08-2014

USDJPY could face a selling pressure soon

The USD/JPY pair has fallen from its resistance zone on a 60 minute time frame.  However, the price is still trading near the resistance zone and it could have another attempt on the resistance zone. What will be important o see in that instance … [Read More...]

EURUSD 19-08-2014

EUR/USD- Sideway action continues, but what next?

The EUR/USD is trading below the downward trend line on a 60 minute time frame. The pair is trading in a symmetrical triangle pattern and these patterns are ranked on the bottom of the pattern recognition chart because of their unreliable price … [Read More...]

GBPUSD 18-08-2014

GBP/USD-Bounced from OUR Identified level, what now?

The GBP/USD has bounced from our Identified support zone on a 60 minute time frame. The support zone was given in our analysis last week. However, we do not have the 1:1 or 2:1 ratio, therefore it may not be a good idea to move the stop to break even … [Read More...]

EURUSD 15-08-2014

EUR/USD- Trading in a symmetrical triangle pattern, will you trade?

The EUR/USD is trading in a symmetrical triangle pattern on a 60 minute time frame. These patterns are ranked on the bottom of the pattern recognition chart because of their unreliable price projection. The pair is trading above the 50dy (shown in … [Read More...]

Screen Shot 2014-08-11 at 07.52.43

GSK under immense selling pressure but could bounce back up

Glaxo smith stock price is under tremendous selling pressure on a daily time frame. The price is sharply trading below the downward trend line. The stock has also pierced the Bollinger band and it is trading away from its 20 day moving average which … [Read More...]

Weekly Forecast

retail sales 12-05

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 12th – 18th of May.

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Tuesday which is the core retail sales data. On Wednesday, investors will look at the PPI.  Thursday, is the main focus of the week with core CPI data, unemployment claims, Empire state manufacturing index and Philly Fed Manufacturing index. Friday, will concentrate on building permits and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which will take traders attention.

 

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.7%

Forecast Figure: 0.6%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because of the slowdown in the auto sales during the month of April.

retail sales 12-05

Source: Bloomberg

 

2.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 1.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       PPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

We do know that the energy prices and food prices have started creeping up and this should have an impact on the PPI reading soon, but given the wholesales gasoline futures are pointing for a downward move so perhaps the longer term view may not have much impact.

PPI 12-05-

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure:  0.2%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure:  319K

Forecast Figure:  321K

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

3.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.3

Forecast Figure:  7.2

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

The regional data released so far is painting a mix picture for the final number and the forward looking new orders index is posting a weak picture. The chart below shows the comparison between the empire and Philadelphia index.

empire state 12-05

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

4.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  16.6

Forecast Figure:  13.9

Time: 14:00 GMT

 

Friday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.00M

Forecast Figure:  1.01M

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Data:

Previous Figure: 84.1

Forecast Figure: 84.7

Time: 13:55 GMT

 

core CPI  15-04-2014

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 14th – 21th of April.

 

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Monday which is the core retail sales data. On Tuesday, investors will look at the core CPI and Empire State Manufacturing. Wednesday is the main focus day of the week with Building permits and housing starts. Thursday, will focus on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will take traders attention.

 

Monday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.3%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.1%

Forecast Figure: 0.1%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because the underlying factors rents are not increasing. The chart shows the comparison between the PPI, Core PPi, CPI and core CPI index.

core CPI  15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

2.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 5.6

Forecast Figure: 8.2

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

The chart shows the comparison between the empire state index and the Philadelphia index.

empire state 15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:1.01M

Forecast Figure:  1.00M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Housing Starts

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.91M

Forecast Figure:  0.97 M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

An increase in the speculation such as a hike in the interest rate and diminishing hunger for new homes could have an impact on the final number.  The belwo chart shows the comparison between the permits and Starts.

housing starts

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 300K

Forecast Figure:  316K

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 9.0

Forecast Figure: 9.6

Time: 15:00 GMT

 

The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. Responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.
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