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Daily Briefing- US futures lower ahead of PMI data

Daily BriefingCurrenciesEUR/USD: The pair is trading below the downward trend line on a 30 minute time frame. The next resistance is at 1.09 and the support is at 1.051. USD/JPY: The pair is trading below its downward trend line on a 30 minute time frame. The next support is at 118.38 and resistance at 120.16 GBP/USD: The pair has moved sharply lower after the economic data … [Read More...]

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Euro quarter: Press sell and let the ECB do the work

The first quarter of 2015 has ended terribly bad for the euro dollar pair which has lost nearly 25% of its value. Thanks to the ECB quantitative easing program and the strength of the U.S. dollar. If Mr Draghi has achieved anything for sure, it is certainly the weakness in the euro against all the major currency. Even novice traders have been able to make profit on this trade, as the only affair … [Read More...]

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Copper- Fundamental vs Technical Analysis

Fundamental Analysis The Chinese PMI data was emboldening on every angle however, it has dampen the speculations in the market for more QE, which is the biggest addiction for the market these days. Hence we are not experiencing any mammoth move for copper today. However, later in the day, we have raft of economic data due for the US economy and a strong reading for the ISM manufacturing and … [Read More...]

Today’s Technical Analysis

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Copper- Fundamental vs Technical Analysis

Fundamental Analysis The Chinese PMI data was emboldening on every angle however, it has dampen the speculations in the market for more QE, which is the biggest addiction for the market these days. Hence we are not experiencing any mammoth move … [Read More...]

USDJPY 30-03-2015

USD/JPY- Bounced from its support zone

The USD/JPY pair bounced from its strong support zone which is mentioned below. Although, this was not a fresh zone but the move from this zone has been very hefty. The price has crossed the 50day (shown in red) and the 100 day (shown in yellow) … [Read More...]

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Gold- Trading in a strong upward momentum

Gold has spiked up and it is trading above its upward trend line on a 4 hour time frame. The price has pierced the Bollinger band and it is trading away from its 20 day moving average which translates that the volatility is high. The piercing of the … [Read More...]

EURUSD 25-03-2015

EUR/USD- Technicals are pointing for an upward move

The EUR/USD pair has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on a 4 hour time frame. However, this pattern is not an absolute pattern because if we draw another line towards the lows formed within this triangle, it ill show us that the bias is building … [Read More...]

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Copper- Downward trend is weak, will you trade?

Copper is trading below its downward trend line on a daily time frame. The price could be challenging the downward trend line soon as it is trading above the 50 day (shown in red) and the 100 day (shown in yellow) moving average. Given that the price … [Read More...]

Weekly Forecast

retail sales 12-05

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 24th – 30th of Nov.

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Tuesday which is the Prelim GDP q/q data. On Wednesday, investors will look at the core durable goods orders and the unemployment claims data.  Also on Wednesday, the main focus of the week with the New Homes Sales data.

 

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.      Prelim GDP q/q

Data:

Previous Figure: 3.5%

Forecast Figure: 3.3%

Time: 14:30 GMT

 

2.       CB Consumer Confidence

Data:

Previous Figure: 94.5

Forecast Figure: 95.9

Time: 16:00 GMT

Screen Shot 2014-11-24 at 11.54.08

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could have inflated due to the continuous fall in the oil prices which has increased the buying power for the consumers.

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: -0.1%%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 14:30 GMT

 

2.     Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 291K

Forecast Figure: 287K

Time: 14:30 GMT

 

3.    New Home Sales

Data:

Previous Figure: 467K

Forecast Figure: 471K

Time: 16:00 GMT

Screen Shot 2014-11-24 at 12.01.20

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

Sentiment: 

We do not think that the New Home Sales improvement will show much of an improvement this week because the inventory data is still depressed.

 

core CPI  15-04-2014

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 14th – 21th of April.

 

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Monday which is the core retail sales data. On Tuesday, investors will look at the core CPI and Empire State Manufacturing. Wednesday is the main focus day of the week with Building permits and housing starts. Thursday, will focus on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will take traders attention.

 

Monday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.3%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.1%

Forecast Figure: 0.1%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because the underlying factors rents are not increasing. The chart shows the comparison between the PPI, Core PPi, CPI and core CPI index.

core CPI  15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

2.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 5.6

Forecast Figure: 8.2

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

The chart shows the comparison between the empire state index and the Philadelphia index.

empire state 15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:1.01M

Forecast Figure:  1.00M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Housing Starts

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.91M

Forecast Figure:  0.97 M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

An increase in the speculation such as a hike in the interest rate and diminishing hunger for new homes could have an impact on the final number.  The belwo chart shows the comparison between the permits and Starts.

housing starts

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 300K

Forecast Figure:  316K

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 9.0

Forecast Figure: 9.6

Time: 15:00 GMT

 

The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. Responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.
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