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Daily Briefing- European markets trading lower; Spanish CPI data disappointed

Daily BriefingCurrenciesEUR/USD: The pair is trading in the support zone (1.3417-1.3387) on a 60 minute time frame. The next support is at 1.3318 and the next resistance is at 1.3631. USD/JPY: The pair is trading above its upward trend line on a 60 minute time frame.  The next support is at 100.99 and resistance at 102.23 GBP/USD: The pair is trading below the downward trend line … [Read More...]

IMG_0819

European markets & US futures trading flat; EU Inflation, German and US unemployment data in focus

European markets are trading marginally higher this morning after the US GDP print yesterday which exceeded all expectations. No one was expecting the final GDP number to come in at 4%, and this was mainly fuelled due to the increase in the consumption and business activity. However, there is nothing unusual for the first GDP reading to be this bullish, as history tells us that in the past, the … [Read More...]

AUDUSD 31-07-2014

AUD/USD- Selling pressure may continue

The AUD/USD pair is trading its downward trend line on a 60 minute time frame. The price pierced the Bollinger band previously, but it has moved back in the band and close to its 20 day moving average which means that the volatility is low.  The pair is also trading below the 50day (shown in red) and the 100 day (shown in yellow) moving average which means that the bias remains towards the … [Read More...]

Today’s Technical Analysis

AUDUSD 31-07-2014

AUD/USD- Selling pressure may continue

The AUD/USD pair is trading its downward trend line on a 60 minute time frame. The price pierced the Bollinger band previously, but it has moved back in the band and close to its 20 day moving average which means that the volatility is low.  The … [Read More...]

USDJPY 29-07-2014

USD/JPY- Upward momentum strong

 The USD/JPY pair is trading above its upward trend line on a 60 minute time frame.  The price is trading below the 100 day (shown in red) and 50 day (shown in green) which clearly represents that the trend is towards the upside and the bulls … [Read More...]

Deutsche bank 25-07-2014

Deustche Bank Bounced from Our Identified level, What now?

The Deutsche bank has tested and bounced back up again from Our Identified support zone. The support zone was given in our analysis on the 17th of July. The price has broken its downward trend line and this confirms that the new trend could be … [Read More...]

GBPUSD 23-07-2014

GBP/USD-Upward pressure building up

The GBP/USD is trading within the inverted wedge pattern on a 60 minute time frame. The price is also trading in a downward wedge pattern and a break of this wedge pattern will confirm that we could be touching the resistance level which is mentioned … [Read More...]

EURUSD 22-07-2014

EUR/USD- Bounced from Support zone as predicted, What now?

The EUR/USD has bounced back up from its support zone (minor support zone mentioned below) on a 240 minute time frame as predicted. The support zone was given in our analysis on the 14th of July. The price has completed its symmetrical triangle … [Read More...]

Weekly Forecast

retail sales 12-05

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 12th – 18th of May.

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Tuesday which is the core retail sales data. On Wednesday, investors will look at the PPI.  Thursday, is the main focus of the week with core CPI data, unemployment claims, Empire state manufacturing index and Philly Fed Manufacturing index. Friday, will concentrate on building permits and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which will take traders attention.

 

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.7%

Forecast Figure: 0.6%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because of the slowdown in the auto sales during the month of April.

retail sales 12-05

Source: Bloomberg

 

2.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 1.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       PPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

We do know that the energy prices and food prices have started creeping up and this should have an impact on the PPI reading soon, but given the wholesales gasoline futures are pointing for a downward move so perhaps the longer term view may not have much impact.

PPI 12-05-

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure:  0.2%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure:  319K

Forecast Figure:  321K

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

3.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.3

Forecast Figure:  7.2

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

The regional data released so far is painting a mix picture for the final number and the forward looking new orders index is posting a weak picture. The chart below shows the comparison between the empire and Philadelphia index.

empire state 12-05

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

4.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  16.6

Forecast Figure:  13.9

Time: 14:00 GMT

 

Friday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.00M

Forecast Figure:  1.01M

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Data:

Previous Figure: 84.1

Forecast Figure: 84.7

Time: 13:55 GMT

 

core CPI  15-04-2014

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 14th – 21th of April.

 

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Monday which is the core retail sales data. On Tuesday, investors will look at the core CPI and Empire State Manufacturing. Wednesday is the main focus day of the week with Building permits and housing starts. Thursday, will focus on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will take traders attention.

 

Monday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.3%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.1%

Forecast Figure: 0.1%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because the underlying factors rents are not increasing. The chart shows the comparison between the PPI, Core PPi, CPI and core CPI index.

core CPI  15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

2.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 5.6

Forecast Figure: 8.2

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

The chart shows the comparison between the empire state index and the Philadelphia index.

empire state 15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:1.01M

Forecast Figure:  1.00M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Housing Starts

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.91M

Forecast Figure:  0.97 M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

An increase in the speculation such as a hike in the interest rate and diminishing hunger for new homes could have an impact on the final number.  The belwo chart shows the comparison between the permits and Starts.

housing starts

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 300K

Forecast Figure:  316K

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 9.0

Forecast Figure: 9.6

Time: 15:00 GMT

 

The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. Responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.
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