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Daily Briefing 20-11-2014

CurrenciesEUR/GBP: The pair is trading within its resistance (0.7975-0.8040) on a 30 minute time frame. The next resistance is at 0.8075 and the support is near the 07975. USD/JPY: The pair is now trading at 118.63/118.67,nearing closer to its resistance level. The support level is currently at 117.4 and resistance at 119.00. GBP/USD: The pair broke its resistance level (1.562-1.5695) on … [Read More...]

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European markets focused on inflation data

Traders are anxious this morning as we will get a very important economic data for the eurozone which is the CPI figure and not to mention the GDP data which is due tomorrow. The data released for Germany so far has shown that the situation has become more worse. The falling commodity prices could easily be blamed if the reading keeps on disappointing the market. Although, it is a valid reason, … [Read More...]

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Gold- Fundamental vs Technical Analysis

Fundamental AnalysisLong term view We are anticipating a bull rally to kick off in two years and our base case scenarios are as followi.) Elections coming up in Germany, France and US in 2017 ii.) BreExit dilemma will be at its peaks in two years iii.) US interest rate will be at the stage where the equity market will struggle to keep its upward momentum iv.) In the absence of the US … [Read More...]

Fundamentals

shutterstock_115490941

European markets focused on inflation data

Traders are anxious this morning as we will get a very important economic data … [Read More...]

More from market news

Today’s Technical Analysis

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 08.30.48

Gold- Fundamental vs Technical Analysis

Fundamental AnalysisLong term view We are anticipating a bull rally to kick off in two years and our base case scenarios are as followi.) Elections coming up in Germany, France and US in 2017 ii.) BreExit dilemma will be at its peaks in two … [Read More...]

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GBP/USD- Downward trend could continue

The GBP/USD pair is trading firmly below the downward trend line on a daily time frame. As long as the price is trading below this downward trend line, the trends remains towards the downside. The pair is also trading below the 100 day (shown in red) … [Read More...]

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Facebook: The downward gap could be closing soon

Facebook is still under pressure on a 240 minute frame. After marking the peak of $81, the stock has not gathered enough momentum to close to its pro gaps. The pro gaps are those gaps which occur in the opposite direction of the current trend. The … [Read More...]

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EUR/USD- Upward move may not last for long

The EUR/USD pair is trading below its downward trend line on a 240 minute time frame. The price has recently moved back from its support zone which is mentioned below however, the price action still looks very weak and it could easily continue its … [Read More...]

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EUR/GBP- Upward bias could pick up momentum

The EUR/GBP pair is challenging its downward trend line on a 240 minute time frame. If the price breaks this downward trend line and stays above it, this will be a confirmation that the bears have lost their control. The price is also trading below … [Read More...]

Weekly Forecast

retail sales 12-05

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 12th – 18th of May.

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Tuesday which is the core retail sales data. On Wednesday, investors will look at the PPI.  Thursday, is the main focus of the week with core CPI data, unemployment claims, Empire state manufacturing index and Philly Fed Manufacturing index. Friday, will concentrate on building permits and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which will take traders attention.

 

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.7%

Forecast Figure: 0.6%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because of the slowdown in the auto sales during the month of April.

retail sales 12-05

Source: Bloomberg

 

2.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 1.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       PPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

We do know that the energy prices and food prices have started creeping up and this should have an impact on the PPI reading soon, but given the wholesales gasoline futures are pointing for a downward move so perhaps the longer term view may not have much impact.

PPI 12-05-

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure:  0.2%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure:  319K

Forecast Figure:  321K

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

3.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.3

Forecast Figure:  7.2

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

The regional data released so far is painting a mix picture for the final number and the forward looking new orders index is posting a weak picture. The chart below shows the comparison between the empire and Philadelphia index.

empire state 12-05

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

4.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  16.6

Forecast Figure:  13.9

Time: 14:00 GMT

 

Friday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.00M

Forecast Figure:  1.01M

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Data:

Previous Figure: 84.1

Forecast Figure: 84.7

Time: 13:55 GMT

 

core CPI  15-04-2014

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 14th – 21th of April.

 

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Monday which is the core retail sales data. On Tuesday, investors will look at the core CPI and Empire State Manufacturing. Wednesday is the main focus day of the week with Building permits and housing starts. Thursday, will focus on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will take traders attention.

 

Monday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.3%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.1%

Forecast Figure: 0.1%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because the underlying factors rents are not increasing. The chart shows the comparison between the PPI, Core PPi, CPI and core CPI index.

core CPI  15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

2.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 5.6

Forecast Figure: 8.2

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

The chart shows the comparison between the empire state index and the Philadelphia index.

empire state 15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:1.01M

Forecast Figure:  1.00M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Housing Starts

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.91M

Forecast Figure:  0.97 M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

An increase in the speculation such as a hike in the interest rate and diminishing hunger for new homes could have an impact on the final number.  The belwo chart shows the comparison between the permits and Starts.

housing starts

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 300K

Forecast Figure:  316K

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 9.0

Forecast Figure: 9.6

Time: 15:00 GMT

 

The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. Responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.
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