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Daily Briefing Oct 24th

Daily Briefing Currencies EUR/USD:  In a day of mixed trading the important Support level of 1.262 held over the past 24 hours and the EURUSD is now trading at 1.26589, just under it’s near term resistance of 1.267. Look for the pair to trade between the aforementioned levels, with breakout targets at either 1.258 or 1.2745. USD/JPY:  After a strong day yesterday, the outlook for … [Read More...]

shutterstock_149334257

Sell off Tantrum not over yet, European futures under pressure once again

The tantrum on Wall Street is not over yet, atleast not for now, as the global economy is facing its biggest challenges, and getting worse day by day, and we have no solution insight in the near term. This has spooked traders to run out of riskier derivatives and pile up their bets for the safe heaven. Printing money has always question mark imposed on it, and there is always a concern what will … [Read More...]

Screen Shot 2014-10-13 at 10.04.19

GBP/USD still under downward pressure

The GBP/USD pair is trading below the downward trend line on a daily time frame. This clearly represents that the bears are in control of the price and the trend is towards the downside. The price is also trading below the 50 day (shown in red) and the 100 day (shown in yellow) moving average which is a further confirmation of the above argument. We do not have any clear pattern formed on the … [Read More...]

Today’s Technical Analysis

Screen Shot 2014-10-13 at 10.04.19

GBP/USD still under downward pressure

The GBP/USD pair is trading below the downward trend line on a daily time frame. This clearly represents that the bears are in control of the price and the trend is towards the downside. The price is also trading below the 50 day (shown in red) and … [Read More...]

EURUSD 09-10-2014

EUR/USD- Bounced over 200 pips from Support zone as predicted

The EUR/USD has bounced back up strongly from its support zone on a 240 minute time frame. The support zone was given in our analysis on the 6th of October. The price has broken two of its downward trend line but still trading below its final … [Read More...]

CAC 40 08-10-2014

Air France profit warning; CAC 40 in focus

Air France is going to find it difficult to have any love among Bulls but there is plenty of that amid bears. The strikes have taken a big toll and it may have a devastating impact on its future earning and this concept is not sitting well with … [Read More...]

AUDUSD 10-09-2014

EUR/USD- Bounced from Support zone, What now?

The EUR/USD has bounced back up strongly from its support zone on a 240 minute time frame. The price is still trading below its downward trend line and also below its 50day (shown in yellow)and the 100 day (shown in red) moving averages, which means … [Read More...]

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DAX in a strong downward trend

The DAX index is showing a very interesting pattern on a 4 hour time frame. The price has clearly broken its upward trend line which confirms that the downward trend is in place. Moreover, the price is also trading below its downward trend line and … [Read More...]

Weekly Forecast

retail sales 12-05

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 12th – 18th of May.

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Tuesday which is the core retail sales data. On Wednesday, investors will look at the PPI.  Thursday, is the main focus of the week with core CPI data, unemployment claims, Empire state manufacturing index and Philly Fed Manufacturing index. Friday, will concentrate on building permits and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which will take traders attention.

 

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.7%

Forecast Figure: 0.6%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because of the slowdown in the auto sales during the month of April.

retail sales 12-05

Source: Bloomberg

 

2.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 1.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       PPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

We do know that the energy prices and food prices have started creeping up and this should have an impact on the PPI reading soon, but given the wholesales gasoline futures are pointing for a downward move so perhaps the longer term view may not have much impact.

PPI 12-05-

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.2%

Forecast Figure:  0.2%

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure:  319K

Forecast Figure:  321K

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

3.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.3

Forecast Figure:  7.2

Time: 12:30 GMT

Sentiment:

The regional data released so far is painting a mix picture for the final number and the forward looking new orders index is posting a weak picture. The chart below shows the comparison between the empire and Philadelphia index.

empire state 12-05

 

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

4.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure:  16.6

Forecast Figure:  13.9

Time: 14:00 GMT

 

Friday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:  1.00M

Forecast Figure:  1.01M

Time: 12:30 GMT

 

2.       Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Data:

Previous Figure: 84.1

Forecast Figure: 84.7

Time: 13:55 GMT

 

core CPI  15-04-2014

Week Ahead: Fundamentals U.S – 14th – 21th of April.

 

U.S will kick off their trading week with a major economic event  release on Monday which is the core retail sales data. On Tuesday, investors will look at the core CPI and Empire State Manufacturing. Wednesday is the main focus day of the week with Building permits and housing starts. Thursday, will focus on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will take traders attention.

 

Monday Fundamentals:

1.       Core Retail Sales m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.3%

Forecast Figure: 0.5%

Time: 13:30 GMT

Tuesday Fundamentals:

1.       Core CPI m/m

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.1%

Forecast Figure: 0.1%

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

Most economists are predicting that the overall reading could remain muted because the underlying factors rents are not increasing. The chart shows the comparison between the PPI, Core PPi, CPI and core CPI index.

core CPI  15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

2.       Empire State Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 5.6

Forecast Figure: 8.2

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

The chart shows the comparison between the empire state index and the Philadelphia index.

empire state 15-04-2014

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

Wednesday Fundamentals:

1.       Building Permits

Data:

Previous Figure:1.01M

Forecast Figure:  1.00M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Housing Starts

Data:

Previous Figure: 0.91M

Forecast Figure:  0.97 M

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

Sentiment:

An increase in the speculation such as a hike in the interest rate and diminishing hunger for new homes could have an impact on the final number.  The belwo chart shows the comparison between the permits and Starts.

housing starts

Source: Bloomberg & Bloomberg Brief

 

 

Thursday Fundamentals:

 

1.       Unemployment Claims

Data:

Previous Figure: 300K

Forecast Figure:  316K

Time: 13:30 GMT

 

2.       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Data:

Previous Figure: 9.0

Forecast Figure: 9.6

Time: 15:00 GMT

 

The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. Responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.
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